商务英语BestinShow

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BusinessandtheVirus:BestinShow

Asevereeconomicshockwillmakeaneliteofmighty?rmsmightierstill–andchangethesocietiesinwhichtheyoperate

Acrosstherichworld,governmentsandeconomistsarescramblingtoworkouthowcostlyvirus-relatedlockdownswillbe.Willtheeconomyshrinkbyatenthorathird?Istheslumpgoingtolastforthreemonths,sixormore?Noonecansaywithanyprecision.Asimilarlyunnervingandinexactexerciseishappeninginboardroomsasfirmstrytoestimatebyhowmuchtheircashflowswillfallandwhethertheyhavetheresourcestosurvive.

Amidthechaos,onething,atleast,isclear:afewpowerfulfirmsaresettogainmoreclout.Alreadysomeareasourceoffinancialstability.ItcostslesstoinsureJohnsonJohnson’sdebtagainstdefaultthanCanada’s.Apple’sgrosscashpileofbnexceedsmostcountries’fiscalstimulus.Unileverisfunnellingcashtoitsarmyofsuppliers.Inthelongrun,thisgroupoffirms–callthemthetopdogs–maywinmarketsharebyinvestingmoreheavilythan,orbuying,enfeebledrivals.Thecatchisthatthepost-pandemicworldwillputthesecorporatechampionsonaleash.

Downturnsarecapitalism’ssortingmechanism,revealingweakbusinessmodelsandstretchedbalance-sheets.InthepastthreerecessionsthesharepricesofAmericanfirmsinthetopquartileofeachoftensectorsroseby6%onaverage,whilethoseinthebottomquartilefellby44%.Thedropinsalesandprofitsinwillbemuchsteeper,thoughhopefullyshorter,thaninatypicalslowdown.

Afewfirmsdirectlyhitbytravelandshoppingbanshavespelledoutjusthowsteep.OnMarch23rd,Primark,afashionretailer,saiditwasshuttingallofitsstoresin12countries,forgoingoverminsalespermonth.Itexpectstosaveonlyhalfitscosts.Formostfirms,thepictureismurkier,andperhapsnotquiteasglum.Somefactoriesarestillrunning,andwhite-collarfirmsoperateremotely.Sofar,

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